The pound’s fall is merely the crowd-sourced view of Britain’s perceived economic prospects. If Brexit comes to be seen as good for Britain it would reverse. Some thoughts on the plight of sterling and what British consumers have in common with Donald Rumsfeld, written for Portland’s Brexit unit, here.
I wrote a piece for Progress magazine that attempts to answer the question – if he were writing today, what would Tony Crosland pick out as the determinants of class in British society? It draws on some great work by the LSE and also an analysis we did on the UK’s wealth distribution recently. Once we understand how society is structured, we can consider the policy implications. Here’s the link.
Philip Hammond’s Conservative party conference speech gives some long-overdue clues as to the approach he will take at the Autumn Statement on November 23rd. Read more.
Some thoughts here on the characteristics of populists and progressives, and what it takes to be both together.
Triumph or disaster? In terms of the UK economy, it could be either depending on who you believe and what newspapers you read. Here’s a round-up of the data so far, as of the second week in September. But of course everything could change in the weeks and months ahead. But if the government manages to set out a clear path and provide some certainty at least as to what is known and what is unknown, that will help everyone. Read more here
Political risk used to be a phrase that was applied to emerging markets. Brexit has changed all that. The challenge for firms working in the changed environment is to get used to it, rather than feel paralysed by not knowing how things are going to work out. Read more here – Kitty Ussher
Here’s a link to an article for Portland, where I am chief economic adviser, on the priorities for financial services companies when they consider how to approach Brexit.