The pound’s fall is merely the crowd-sourced view of Britain’s perceived economic prospects. If Brexit comes to be seen as good for Britain it would reverse. Some thoughts on the plight of sterling and what British consumers have in common with Donald Rumsfeld, written for Portland’s Brexit unit, here.
Here’s a link to an article for Portland, where I am chief economic adviser, on the priorities for financial services companies when they consider how to approach Brexit.
Here’s a link to my review for the Society of Business Economists of Howard Davies’ most recent reflections on the lessons of the financial crisis.
I contributed to this excellent article in today’s FT Weekend magazine on the gender gap in parliament.
Here’s a link to my note on the Budget published for Portland. The effect on May’s general election will depend on whether voters prefer the “steady as she goes” approach or feel that “enough is enough”.
In the run up to Greece’s elections on Sunday, here’s a Huffpo piece on the likely implications of the anti-austerity parties winning. Once the dust has settled Greece will still be in the euro, and a renegotiation of the debt repayment schedule will be possible.
Here’s a link to the FT’s new year survey of economists with predictions for 2015 – my contribution highlights the political risk of an EU referendum if the Conservatives win the general election in May.
Here’s my analysis of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on December 3rd, written for Portland.
Jointly with Ashwin Kumar I’ve today published a Smith Institute discussion paper that explores the new Wealth and Assets data to see how the wealth distribution alters across UK households over time. It shows the inextricable link between housing and overall wealth distribution, the importance of dealing with consumer indebtedness and highlights how many people who receive inheritances do so at exactly the time when they need it the least.
Our company, Tooley Street Research, has today published an innovative new piece of data analysis and qualitative research exploring the characteristics of people who find it hard over time to progress beyond 20 per cent above the minimum wage. We were commissioned by CiPD and John Lewis Partnership and the report is available here on the CiPD website: Pay progression: Understanding the barriers for the lowest paid.
It was also referenced in a piece in yesterday’s FT (Public sector cuts worsen low-pay trap 21st October 2014)
Key results are the vulnerability of part-time workers, and in particular those with children of pre-school age. In practice this means that women who are on low wages working part-time are much more likely to be “stuck” there.